Fernando Mendoza gives Indiana a quarterback advantage over Miami’s Carson Beck.
Veteran Hoosiers don’t beat themselves with blunders, turnovers or penalties.
Miami’s pass rush must be disruptive for chance at national championship game upset.
Someone, alert the 1894 Yale Bulldogs. Wait, I’m afraid that’s not possible. They’ve exited stage.
Anyway, Yale could soon have company in the 16-0 stratosphere if Indiana beats Miami to win the national championship.
Not since 1894 Yale has a major college football team finished 16-0.
North Dakota State finished 16-0 at the FCS level in 2019, but this would be a first for the FBS. The 12-team College Football Playoff makes it so teams can go 16-0.
You’re up, Indiana.
After the Hoosiers (15-0) routed Alabama and Oregon in playoff games by a combined score of 94-25, it’s no surprise they’re an 8.5-point favorite against Miami (13-2).
Here are four reasons Indiana will win this game and finish 16-0, and one reason it won’t:
Why Indiana football will beat Miami in CFP national championship
Indiana shows no weakness
Try to find one. Alabama couldn’t. Oregon, either. Ask Illinois what Indiana’s weakness is. The Illini lost, 63-10, to Indiana.
The Hoosiers are sturdy at the lines of scrimmage. They’re explosive at the skill positions. That includes wide receivers who are as sure-handed as they come. Linebacker Aiden Fisher provides the defense with a dependable, veteran anchor. In the secondary, D’Angelo Ponds is as good of a cornerback as there is in college football.
To beat Indiana, you must meet good with good, because there’s no bad spots on this team.
“There’s not a weakness in their game,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning said after the Peach Bowl. “They run the ball well. They stop the run well. They throw the ball well. They defend the pass well. They’re great on special teams.”
Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned the quarterback yet.
Hoosiers have QB advantage in Fernando Mendoza
Difficult to choose what to like most about Fernando Mendoza’s game as Indiana’s quarterback. Is it the accuracy? The pinpoint timing of his throws? His poise? His leadership?
Maybe, it’s as simple as this: He rarely throws incompletions.
In two playoff games, Mendoza has more touchdown passes (eight) than incompletions (five). That’s an incredible stat.
His 41-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the season nudges him toward a passer rating that leads the nation.
Miami’s Carson Beck delivered his best performance of the playoff in his last game, a semifinal win against Mississippi. But, he’s still a bit Jekyll and Hyde. You don’t know what to expect from Beck.
You know what you’re going to get from Mendoza, a quarterback who’s been better than any this season. As Miami coach Mario Cristobal put it, Mendoza’s Heisman Trophy recognition was “well-deserved.”
Indiana football doesn’t beat itself
Indiana won’t help out its opponent by committing a barrage of blunders or mental errors. The Hoosiers rank among the nation’s least-penalized teams. (Miami tilts toward the upper-end of the penalty spectrum.)
In a can’t-believe-this-is-real stat, Indiana has not lost a fumble since the season opener against Old Dominion. The wide receivers don’t drop passes. Kicker Nico Radicic is money.
When Indiana blocked a punt against Oregon, that sort of hammered home that the Hoosiers win in the cracks and the crevices. If there’s an X-factor to gain, they’ll find it.
As defensive lineman Mario Landino put it, the team’s mindset boils down to three letters. DYJ. Do Your Job.
They do it well.
Indiana can force Carson Beck into mistakes
Miami rallied with a seven-game win streak thanks in part to Beck limiting miscues in the back half of the season. Beck threw four interceptions in a loss to Louisville and two more in a loss to SMU on Nov. 1. Since then, he’s thrown only two interceptions.
Indiana is a threat to reinfect Beck with the interception bug. The Hoosiers have intercepted at least one pass in 12 of 15 games. Ponds’ pick-six on the first play of the Peach Bowl set a menacing tone.
For Miami to have a chance, Beck must continue to limit mistakes, as he did throughout the first three rounds of the playoff. Indiana’s defense is equipped to force him into a rough night.
One reason Indiana might lose to Miami
Miami’s defense is tremendous
Ohio State and Iowa had two of the best defenses Indiana faced this season. They were the only teams to limit Indiana to 20 points or fewer.
Miami’s defense showed its ferocity in playoff wins against Texas A&M and Ohio State. Its defensive line is filled with disruptors, including the two-headed monster of Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. Those guys haunt quarterbacks. Fortunately for Indiana, Carter Smith is one of the nation’s best offensive tackles. He can’t block everyone.
Mendoza hasn’t gone against a pass rush as good as Miami’s — namely, because there is no pass rush as good as Miami’s, although Indiana’s isn’t far behind.
Miami’s Keionte Scott is a game-changing defensive back. His pick-six helped fuel the upset of Ohio State. For Miami to have a chance, it must make Mendoza hear footsteps and harass him. A defensive touchdown wouldn’t hurt, either.
When is CFP national championship game?
Date: Monday, Jan. 19
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
The 2026 CFP national championship game between No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami is scheduled for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Monday, Jan. 19.
Where is CFP national championship game?
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
The 2026 CFP national title game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, which is coincidentally the home stadium for the Hurricanes. The venue is also home to the NFL’s Miami Dolphins.
How to watch CFP national championship game:
TV channel: ESPN
Streaming: ESPN app | Fubo (free trial)
The CFP national championship game will air live on ESPN. Streaming options for the game include the ESPN app or Fubo, which offers a free trial. ESPN2 will have an alternative viewing with ‘Field Pass with ‘The Pat McAfee Show,” while ESPNU will have a ‘Film Room’ telecast.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
