In the world of the NFL draft, it’s much more difficult to take the temperature than to foresee a storm.
By Wednesday, however, the downpour on this year’s quarterback class was in full effect when Dante Moore announced he would return to Oregon for the 2026 season. Moore had been widely projected as the No. 2 signal-caller behind Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and a leading candidate to be taken second overall by the New York Jets.
In what was already shaping up to be a down year for passers, the 6-foot-3, 206-pound sophomore figured to be the kind of prospect teams would eagerly sign up to bring along. Moore threw 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while leading the Ducks to the College Football Playoff semifinals, with substantial progress made in his poise and precision after he completed just 53.5% of his passes as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023 before transferring.
Now, three months out from the draft’s first pick being made in Pittsburgh, the quarterback landscape is looking awfully barren for a swath of teams.
Forgive me for claiming a win here, but seeing this potentially calamitous QB class coming might be one of the few predictions about the upcoming draft I get right. (Don’t worry about where I said the likes of Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier might end up in my way-too-early mock draft in April.)
Amid a shaky start at the position almost across the board in September, I highlighted five quarterbacks who could still save the ’26 draft. Moore was the leading candidate among them. Then, amid persistent speculation that Moore and Alabama’s Ty Simpson could eschew going pro for another year in college, I tried to sketch out what a worst-case scenario QB class would look like in my early December mock draft.
Simpson ended up declaring, providing teams with at least one additional option behind center who could end up in the first-round mix. But Moore’s decision figures to send ripples throughout college football and the NFL for the next year-plus.
Here’s our breakdown of where things stand for NFL teams, QB prospects and the next two draft classes in the wake of Moore’s move:
What’s the 2026 NFL draft class QB outlook after Dante Moore’s return to Oregon?
It’s bad. Really bad.
To be fair, we’ve seen worse in recent history. Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner, is an accomplished and highly promising prospect as a passer, even if his physical tools and shortage of creativity leave him less enticing than the likes of Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. His presence alone should prevent this year’s draft from going down in history next to the 2013 and 2022 editions, when EJ Manuel (No. 16) and Kenny Pickett (No. 20) had to wait until the middle of the first round before becoming the lone quarterback chosen in the top 32 picks.
But Mendoza shapes up as a virtual lock to go to the Las Vegas Raiders, who hold the No. 1 overall pick and have little incentive to look elsewhere for a passer given the dearth of options. For everyone else searching for a young passer capable of transforming a franchise’s fortunes … happy hunting.
Moore’s decision no doubt thrusts the spotlight on Simpson, who surged in the early portion of his first year as a starter before floundering down the stretch. In the first two months of the season, the 6-foot-2, 208-pound signal-caller impressed with his quick processing and ability to navigate the pocket.
Yet Simpson’s inexperience after just 15 starts figures to loom large in a league where teams historically have been wary of using top picks on throwers with a limited body of work. And those who have broken through typically have a trump card in the form of dazzling arm strength, a la Dwayne Haskins, or other-worldly athleticism, like that of Anthony Richardson. Simpson doesn’t fit that bill with his rather pedestrian physical traits, so cracking the top half of the first round will be an exceedingly difficult sell.
Maybe, however, he fits in as this year’s Jaxson Dart – a mid-to-late Day 1 option for a team that would, at least initially, not immediately anoint him as a franchise savior. It’s possible Simpson may get pushed up higher by the supply-demand imbalance behind center. But in a talent pool with few surefire first-rounders, the Crimson Tide standout doesn’t shape up as one of them.
What really makes the 2026 class even bleaker than last year’s group, however, is the outlook beyond Mendoza and Simpson. There’s no equivalent of Tyler Shough – the seventh-year senior at Louisville who built a buzz in the pre-draft process before landing with the New Orleans Saints – in the mix as an intriguing Day 2 selection. And there’s no Jalen Milroe developmental prospect, either.
For teams who miss out on Mendoza and don’t push for Simpson, the pickings look slim. Might the No. 3 option be Mississippi’s Trinidad Chambliss? The Division II transfer is still trying to fight his way back to the college ranks for another year of eligibility. If his battle with the NCAA ends up for naught, however, he could end up as the captivating second-tier passer that currently can’t be found elsewhere.
Beyond him, the next best choice might be Nussmeier, who might be flying under the radar a bit following a season-long letdown for LSU that was hardly all his fault. Allar, meanwhile, has seen his star fade considerably after a massively disappointing campaign that culminated with a season-ending ankle injury. But his upside still could make him a fun project. And Miami’s Carson Beck has helped boost his case with the Hurricanes’ CFP title game run, with a mid-round spot now perhaps within reach.
For any team in search of an immediate difference-maker, however, the message might be to wait until 2027. Good news on that front, though.
2027 NFL draft class could be an all-timer
When it comes to evaluating draft prospects, things always look rosier a full year out, with players yet to have all the finer points of their game picked apart.
But it’s fair to say that the 2027 NFL draft class is shaping up to be one of the most exciting collections of talent – particularly at QB – in quite some time.
Any discussion that centers on hype, of course, has to begin with Arch Manning. The Texas quarterback, who was seen by many to be the early favorite for the No. 1 pick in 2026 despite only having made two starts entering this season, sparked some chortles and derision with his rough early performances. By the end of the year, however, he managed to settle in and serve up reminders of why he was so highly thought of in the first place.
With plenty of time to sort things out, Moore might take a backseat to Manning for the early front-runner for No. 1 in 2027.
There should be plenty of competition for the duo, however. Brendan Sorsby transferred from Cincinnati to Texas Tech rather than trying his luck in this year’s draft, and his burly build (6-foot-3, 235 pounds), outstanding arm strength and alluring mobility are sure to make him one of the most closely monitored passers next fall. His package of athletic tools might only be rivaled by South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, who at 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds presents a singular threat for vexing defenses with his downfield passing and running ability. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin is hardly the physical marvel of the aforementioned quarterbacks, but the Heisman Trophy finalist will earn plenty of fans with his precision and overall savvy operating from the pocket.
Beyond the top options, there are a host of wild cards who could rise and give next year’s group the depth that the forthcoming one lacks. Several other signal-callers joined Sorsby in heading to other schools, with LSU’s Sam Leavitt and Indiana’s Josh Hoover ranking among the best situated to surge at their new spots. Many more – including Duke’s Darian Mensah, USC’s Jayden Maiava, Oklahoma’s John Mateer and UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava – stayed situated in hopes of breaking out in more familiar confines.
In light of the drastically sunnier setup next year, would teams actually put a pin in any quarterback plans merely in hopes of a payoff down the road? Treading water typically hasn’t served teams well in recent years. And it’s helped contribute to the downfall of several coaches, with nine teams now having vacancies in what many figured would be a slower cycle. But, as Shedeur Sanders’ slide in last year’s draft reinforced, organizations won’t force the issue on a quarterback investment if they don’t see a viable solution. And with so many new coaches coming aboard in one offseason, several front offices might be better positioned to exercise some discretion at the position rather than scrambling for an answer.
It’s a fascinating dynamic Moore has put himself in the middle of – and he should remain there for the next 15 months.
