With only one more week in the regular season, the NFL playoff picture is a mess.
The No. 1 seed, and the all-important homefield advantage that goes with it, is still up for grabs in both the AFC and the NFC. There are two playoff spots yet to be decided. Only one team has locked its playoff seed. It’s going to require a spreadsheet, a calculator and every screen you can find just to keep up next weekend.
It’s chaos. Glorious chaos. And it’s yet another example of why the NFL is king in this country, and no other sport comes close.
Every league will claim that all its games matter, but the truth is usually far different. The sheer volume of most league schedules creates clear separation between the contenders and never-had-a-chancers, and the latter will spend the last month, maybe even two, playing out the string.
Just look at the NBA standings right now. You really think the Indiana Pacers or New Orleans Pelicans are going to be worth watching come March? The Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies are pretty much irrelevant after Major League Baseball’s All-Star Break.
In the NFL, however, it’s bedlam right down to the wire.
Even if the chances of some teams — looking at you, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — are tenuous, at best, half of the 32-team league remains in playoff contention heading into the final weekend. Only four of the final 16 games next weekend are truly meaningless in terms of postseason implications.
There’s even reason to tune in to Sunday night’s game between the 8-8 Baltimore Ravens and the 9-7 Pittsburgh Steelers besides hate-watching Aaron Rodgers!
And I haven’t even mentioned the clubs in play for the top pick of next year’s draft.
NFL dominance is short-lived
The NFL has its dynasties, and there are years when the Super Bowl champion seems like a foregone conclusion. The New England Patriots with Tom Brady, for example. Or, before this year, the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes.
But the NFL’s structure, with both a hard salary cap and a requirement that teams spend a minimum of 90% of that cap over a small duration, means it is built for upheaval. The New York Jets aside, every team and its fandom can begin a season legitimately believing they have a chance.
At least half of the NFL’s eight divisions, and as many as seven, will have new champions this year. Of the 12 teams that have already clinched playoff spots, five did not make the playoffs last year. Four of those had losing records last season.
This is not a one-off, mind you. This is the 36th consecutive season that at least four teams have qualified for the playoffs after failing to make the postseason the prior year. At least two teams have won their divisions the season after missing the playoffs in 21 of the past 23 years.
And those Chiefs, who have won three of the last six Super Bowls and played in two others? They’ll be at home on their couches, finishing below .500 for the first time in Andy Reid’s time there.
Games that matter or … Snoop Dogg bowl?
There are some who might find the jockeying for a fifth seed boring, or don’t care who backs into the playoffs because they’re the winner of this year’s Division of Misfit Toys. But there is something to be said about so many games having meaning at this time of year, ensuring there is at least peripheral interest beyond fans of the two teams who are playing.
Or would you prefer the absurdity of the college football system, where the “sanctity of the bowls” (and ESPN’s thirst for programming) gives us such scintillating games such as Fresno State’s 18-3 win over Miami of Ohio in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl?
Give me Seahawks-49ers for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Shoot, give me Jets-Bills, with Buffalo trying to improve its seeding. And while deep down we know the Ravens are probably done for, we’ll still tune in to see if Derrick Henry can truck another team for 200 yards.
(Plus the aforementioned Rodgers hate-watching, of course.)
This is what competitive balance looks like. Messy as it might be, it’s entertaining. And it keeps us watching until the bitter end.
Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Nancy Armour on social media @nrarmour.
