The SEC buried the Big Ten in the preseason coaches poll, but that does not add up to a College Football Playoff advantage.
Unranked Oklahoma Sooners among underrated teams in US LBM Coaches Poll.
Nick Saban’s preseason effect gone from Alabama.
After an offseason filled with interconference propaganda wars, thinly veiled shots and public sniping, the 67 coaches who vote in the US LBM Coaches Poll got to offer one last, private word on which conference is strongest.
The ballots are in: It’s the SEC. That’s the preseason perception, anyway.
Nine SEC teams are ranked in the preseason coaches poll, compared to six Big Ten teams. Together, the Super Two conferences account for 60% of the Top 25.
The two highest vote-getters among unranked teams also hail from the SEC. Add it up, and coaches widely perceive the SEC as a deep conference. At the top, Texas ranks as preseason No. 1 nationally for the first time in coaches poll history.
But, a Top 25 logjam won’t necessarily help the SEC’s playoff hunt.
Here are my five hot takes from the poll:
Poll does not give SEC a College Football Playoff advantage
The SEC also put nine teams in the preseason rankings last year but qualified only three teams for the playoff – one fewer than the Big Ten qualified.
Translation: The SEC’s preseason Top 25 blitz does not help its playoff pursuits. It means the conference schedule can become a battle royale filled with land mines. That unfolded last season, when Alabama and Mississippi got taken out by teams from the SEC’s middle or lower tier.
The Big Ten’s cream, like No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Penn State, is as sweet as the SEC’s. The Big Ten’s collective strength tapers off more quickly, though. That can assist the Big Ten’s top playoff contenders.
The Big Ten has fewer ranked teams, but with four positioned inside the top 12, it’s as well positioned – if not better positioned – to produce as many or more playoff qualifiers as the SEC.
Here’s an example of what this looks like in practice: No. 12 Illinois will play two teams ranked in the preseason Top 25. Comparatively, No. 17 Florida will play seven teams ranked in the preseason. You’d rather pursue the spot from Illinois’ position, than Florida’s.
If the playoff doubled in size to 24 teams, the SEC’s depth of ranked teams would position it to claim the most bids. With this 12-team playoff, the Big Ten enjoys solid footing.
Nick Saban factor officially gone from Alabama
Alabama’s No. 8 ranking seems appropriate. The Crimson Tide upgraded at wide receiver and in the defensive backfield ahead of Kalen DeBoer’s second season, but there’s enough question marks to maintain skepticism. Like, will quarterback Ty Simpson go boom or bust?
Nick Saban, because of his track record, could transition to an unproven quarterback without losing the benefit of the doubt. This ranking shows that the rinse-and-repeat respect voters bestowed upon Saban’s Alabama in the preseason already has waned since his retirement. It also shows how quickly a team’s reputation can go from elite to just pretty good after a coaching change.
Alabama’s No. 8 position marks its lowest preseason ranking since it went unranked in 2008, ahead of Saban’s second season.
DeBoer’s mission is to get the Tide back into the playoff – and to restore Alabama’s aura.
Pressure is on … Penn State
There’s pressure on Texas and Arch Manning to live up to the hype. That’s obvious.
But, No. 3 Penn State also faces a momentous season, with its loftiest preseason ranking since being tapped No. 2 in 1997. That year, Joe Paterno’s Nittany Lions kept their No. 2 ranking going into November, until getting trounced by Michigan and finishing 9-3.
Penn State’s ranking reflects its possession of highly acclaimed veteran quarterback Drew Allar, plus one of the nation’s best backfields. Penn State upgraded its wide receivers through the transfer market.
On both sides of the ball, proven veterans fill Penn State’s lineup. Credit James Franklin for elevating the program to this perch. Also, question whether Franklin can take it to the highest perch.
Penn State’s failures in the biggest moments under Franklin are well-documented. He’s 0-6 against Ohio State coach Ryan Day.
Fortunately for Franklin, it’s possible to win a national championship without beating the Buckeyes, just as it became possible for Day to capture his first national title without beating Michigan.
Penn State enjoys a cushy schedule. Franklin assembled a team good enough to win a national championship, but a history that says he won’t.
Big 12 will remain more interesting, but less respected, than ACC
No. 6 Clemson gives the ACC a national championship contender, making the Big 12 the only Power Four league that lacks team in the top 10 – but the conference will be more fun to monitor than the ACC.
The rankings reflect this. Clemson, No. 10 Miami and No. 16 SMU account for the ACC’s only ranked teams. I’d be surprised if a team from outside this trio won the ACC. In the Big 12, I struggle to produce a list of teams that absolutely can’t win the conference.
The Big 12 tucked five teams inside the Top 25, with several more receiving votes. It remains the nation’s most unpredictable conference, after Arizona State won the league last year despite being picked to finish last.
Entertaining though it will be, how much will the selection committee respect the Big 12’s anyone-can-beat-anyone nature? Last year, the committee persistently undervalued the conference.
A parity-filled conference like the Big 12 becomes great for entertainment, but the ACC’s top teams establishing separation is better for its playoff hunt.
Coaches poll’s overrated, underrated teams
Overrated teams include No. 13 South Carolina, No. 17 Florida and No. 19 Indiana.
Underrated teams include No. 6 Clemson, No. 20 Kansas State, No. 24 Texas Tech, unranked Oklahoma and unranked Baylor.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
