There’s no such thing as the “symbolic halfway point” for Major League Baseball’s offseason, which can devolve from winter wonderland to grim slog through the tundra for a job, any job.
With that, happy holidays!
It’s somewhat fair to say Christmas morning marks a turning point. Simply, free agents want to be signed by then. Front offices would prefer having the bulk of their heavy lifting done – though patience remains a virtue in both trade talks and the mid-range free agent market.
As it stands, just a little more than half – 11 of 20 – of our top free agents have signed contracts, with just four of 10 and 34 of 120 overall finding their forever homes.
That means plenty more to come in the eight weeks before spring training camps open. A look at the teams and players in great shape, those poised for a winning winter and others with plenty of shopping remaining:
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Love, actually
New York Yankees: A remarkable pivot from losing the game’s greatest free agent hitter and somehow improving upon a roster that made it to the World Series. Acquiring Cody Bellinger for, essentially, a modest lump of cash solves a lot of problems. While the Paul Goldschmidt add may not work out for a few reasons (another aging right-handed hitter?), the risk is low, with decent upside. Easily the favorites in the AL East, and probably to defend their pennant, too.
Philadelphia Phillies: A lineup full of nine-figure contracts and positional inflexibility always made a Juan Soto play and other massive outlays unrealistic. So the Phillies attacked their liabilities on the fringe, trading for Jesús Luzardo to ensure Taijuan Walker heads to the bullpen and signing outfielder Max Kepler, limiting light-hitting Johan Rojas’s exposure. A once-vaunted bullpen looks a little light if Jordan Romano is the lone high-leverage add, but the overall staff depth looks nice with the low-cost signing of Joe Ross.
Texas Rangers: After a one-year pause in the free agent waters after assessing their TV rights situation, the 2023 champs are acting the part again. Re-upping playoff hero Nathan Eovaldi on a $75 million deal takes a ton of pressure off several arms, be it Jacob deGrom’s return to full-time duty to the expected impact from rookies Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. The position-player pool is now deep and flexible, with Jake Burger and Joc Pederson adding beef to the right and left sides and Kyle Higashioka giving the catching position more sock. Bouncebacks from outfielders Evan Carter and Adolis Garcia would make this a very dangerous squad.
Die hard
Toronto Blue Jays: It wouldn’t be a holiday card display without a “wish you were here” from a major free agent. This time, it’s Soto sending his regrets. Yet the Blue Jays remain determined to exploit their diminishing Vlad Guerrero (and Bo Bichette) window, and trading for Andrés Giménez filled a fairly big hole. Now, to find a rotation piece, a third baseman, bullpen help – and meet Guerrero’s spring training deadline for an extension. A high-wire act, indeed.
San Francisco Giants: At long last, a big-time free agent took their money before daylight savings kicked in. Willy Adames brings charisma, home-run pop and excellent middle infield defense to the mix. Now, to land Corbin Burnes – which might make the Dodgers look up from their Clase Azul shot glasses and take notice.
Boston Red Sox: Boston remains a non-destination for the major free agent. So, bully for the Red Sox to dip into their prospect capital and bring in the most attractive arm on the trade market – cheap, dominant Garrett Crochet, who gives their rotation immediate credibility. Walker Buehler will be determined to shove in his one year in Boston. Bouncebacks and breakouts from returnees and those vaunted prospects make the BoSox interesting again – finally.
The holdovers
Baltimore Orioles: Is this as good as it gets? No big-money free agent, no major prospect capital spent on a Crochet-like trade asset? Keep in mind that GM Mike Elias didn’t swing a trade for rental ace Corbin Burnes until Feb. 1, so even though plenty of work remains, there’s also lots of time. Yet the first winter with new owner David Rubenstein seemed to confirm an Orioles fan’s worst fear – a dalliance with high-end prizes like Burnes, but a decided lack of smoke once it gets down to big-boy bidding. With righty slugger Tyler O’Neill and soft-tossing Japanese import Tomoyuki Sagano the big additions so far, Orioles fans’ challenge to Rubenstein remains the same: Prove us wrong.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Only in L.A. could the $182 million signing of Blake Snell and classically clever add of lefty slugger Michael Conforto leave fans with lingering questions. Well, just one, really: Where’s Teo? As the winter crawls on and there remains no reunion between charismatic slugger/World Series hero Teoscar Hernández and the club that rode his one season in L.A. to a championship, the likelihood increases that the club and the All-Star who has patiently awaited a proper payday may not find common ground. Minus Hernández and Buehler, are the Dodgers with Snell and Conforto better than the club that won the World Series? Probably – but not in the vibes department.
Atlanta Braves: The early-shopping window has closed on GM Alex Anthopoulos, whose best work often comes before Black Friday. But this year it’s only brought goodbyes to next-door neighbors Fried and catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who was non-tendered and signed with the Angels. Now, the Braves need improvements in all areas, and don’t want to overly rely on recovering stars (Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider) and the return to All-Star form for Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Sean Murphy. Time for Alex to cook.
Home alone
San Diego Padres: After earning the unofficial designation as “probably the second-best team of 2024 but lost to the eventual champs in the NLDS,” the Padres have been virtually radio silent since, an odd position for an A.J. Preller-helmed club. They once again need a left fielder and DH, and probably won’t find a Jurickson Profar-like All-Star performer for such a bargain this time. Winning the Rōki Sasaki sweepstakes would be a huge boon for a club minding its bottom line. But for now, they’ve slipped well behind the Dodgers with the Giants closing fast.
Houston Astros: Perhaps the Kyle Tucker trade brought a needed infusion of “controllable years” to a squad in constant contention mode for a decade. The Christian Walker add was nice. Yet right now, minus Alex Bregman and with essentially replacement-level (or worse) production at all three outfield spots, it’s hard to imagine this squad staggering to 88 wins and an AL West title in ’25 – especially with the division all improved around them.
Pete Alonso: Uh, anybody need a dude who posted three 40-plus homer seasons before he was 30? We get it: Alonso is thrust into the mega-free agent derby and right now has nobody to dance with. His number will be called soon, probably in a reunion with the Mets, but in a just world, there’d be a dozen power-hungry teams with their hat in the ring, rather than the same old suspects rounding out their lineup.
Nolan Arenado: A strange limbo for an eight-time All-Star who just two years ago produced an NL-best 7.7 WAR. Arenado holds some sway over his trade destination, yet it’s undoubtedly an odd spot knowing the Cardinals have little interest in contending while others may hesitate to pay the $64 million owed Arenado – the Rockies are picking up $10 million more – the next three years.
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