Penn State football could earn the No. 6 seed in the CFP bracket, without playing in the Big Ten championship game. Now, that’s a chess move.
While Penn State rests up on conference championship weekend, Ohio State could be forced to play Oregon for a second time (and then a third time in CFP bracket).
At LSU, heat ticks up on Brian Kelly.
The Nittany Lions are out here playing chess with their playoff positioning, while others battle in a fierce game of checkers.
Penn State destroyed hapless Purdue on Saturday, pushing it one move closer to knotting up a home first-round playoff game without having to play in the Big Ten championship game.
If Ohio State beats Indiana next weekend, the Buckeyes are in line for a rematch with Oregon in the conference championship, with the possibility of those two powers meeting for a third time in the CFP.
If Indiana topples OSU, then the Hoosiers would be positioned to play Oregon for the conference crown.
Either way, Penn State can sit home on conference championship weekend, rest up, study some film and cruise into to a first-round host seed without beating a single team that will finish ranked in the top 25.
Pretty ideal, huh?
The Nittany Lions (9-1) slotted into the No. 6 seed line in the bracket in last week’s update from the playoff committee, and there’s a solid chance they wind up there. That’s prime real estate.
The 6-seed will host the 11-seed in Round 1, followed by a game against the No. 3 seed in the quarterfinals. That 3-seed likely will be a team from the ACC, Big 12 or Group of Five, with Big Ten and SEC teams best positioned for the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds.
Alternatively, the Buckeyes could beat Indiana, then lose to Oregon in the Big Ten championship, get seeded fifth, and be on a collision course to face the Ducks for a third time in the CFP semifinals.
To think, that’s OSU’s reward for beating Penn State in Happy Valley on Nov. 2.
Some prize.
Penn State’s opponents have a combined record of 48-53.
The committee’s a sucker for the eye test, and their eyes tell them the Nittany Lions are good. Never mind that Purdue (1-9) stinks.
‘That was the best game we played overall,’ Penn State coach James Franklin said after his team’s 49-10 destruction of the Boilersmakers, ‘in terms of four quarters, offense, defense, special teams, complementary football.’
Penn State fans seethed after Franklin lost to the Buckeyes two weeks ago, his 10th loss to OSU in 11 tries.
Consider that loss sacrificing a pawn, while the Nittany Lions played the long game and positioned themselves for one of the very best spots on the bracket.
Here’s what else weighs on my mind in this ‘Topp Rope’ view of college football:
Brian Kelly headed for heat in Year 4 at LSU
This charade of LSU being a playoff contender finally, mercifully ended with a 27-16 loss to Florida at The Swamp.
The Tigers’ comeback victory against Ole Miss now looks like the exception, not the rule. LSU owns losses to Southern Cal and Florida, a pair of teams with a combined 10-10 record, plus a blowout loss at home to Alabama, and a second-half collapse in a loss at Texas A&M. LSU nearly suffered a fifth loss, needing a second-half rally against a backup quarterback to survive South Carolina.
Call this what it is: an absolute bust of a season. Brian Kelly’s third year on the bayou became by far his worst, and Jayden Daniels no longer is here to mask lingering program deficiencies.
LSU can’t run the ball, and its defense remains untrustworthy.
If I had to describe the Tigers in a single word? Soft.
How about two words? Really soft.
You get the idea.
‘This is a simple exercise of do you want to fight or not?’ Kelly said after LSU’s third straight loss.
I think we have our answer.
Kelly rants and raves on the sideline, and he indicated he’s becoming more involved in offensive play calling (a little late for that). LSU’s fan base fumes, too.
A 10-year mega deal for Kelly was supposed to buy LSU more than this. The Tigers aren’t going make a move on Kelly this year. He’s too pricy to fire, and a recruiting class loaded with blue-chip prospects that LSU needs is too important to sacrifice. Among the commits is five-star prospect Bryce Underwood, the nation’s No. 1 quarterback recruit.
That recruiting class can’t get here quickly enough, because the mercury shoots up on the thermometer, with Kelly now facing a pivotal Year 4.
Could Boise State receive a CFP bye?
Although Brigham Young lost 17-13 to Kansas, the Cougars remain positioned to face (as of now) Colorado in the Big 12 championship game.
While the Buffaloes (8-2) pick up steam, BYU’s loss has been a few weeks in the making. Pay attention to where BYU (9-1) and Colorado rank in Tuesday’s CFP update.
Although the general assumption is that the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 champions will receive byes into the playoff quarterfinals, that’s not automatic.
If the Group of Five qualifier ranks higher than the lowest-ranked Power Four champion come selection time, then that Group of Five team would claim a bye and send that lowest-ranked Power Four champion into a first-round game.
In other words, if Boise State (9-1) ranks ahead of BYU and Colorado on Tuesday, it retains hope of a first-round bye.
The committee still could catapult the Big 12 champion ahead of Boise State on selection day, no matter what Tuesday’s rankings say, but Boise State losing by just three points at Oregon in Week 2 makes it worthy of consideration for a bye, if it wins the Mountain West and finishes 12-1.
Best line I heard this week
Colorado’s two-way standout Travis Hunter populates the shortlist of Heisman Trophy frontrunners, and he did nothing to hurt his case in a 49-24 win against Utah. Hunter intercepted a pass and caught five passes for 55 yards.
Hunter struck the Heisman pose after his interception.
If voters remain unmoved, Colorado coach Deion Sanders says he can’t help them.
‘I’m not going to give a message to Heisman voters who are undecided,’ Sanders said. ‘If they can’t see, they can’t see. … It’s supposed to go to the best college football player. I think that’s been a wrap since Week 2.
‘So, we aren’t petitioning for nobody.’
By framing his answer this way, Sanders cleverly delivered a message to Heisman voters while insisting he wasn’t.
Three and out
1. Tennessee fans, permission granted to Gator chomp.
The Vols (8-2) probably will be left needing a bit of help to make the playoff after a 31-17 loss at Georgia.
Tennessee retains multiple avenues to regain favor from the selection committee. If Ohio State trounces Indiana, that would be mighty handy. Or, a Notre Dame loss to either Army or USC could lift Tennessee into the bracket.
Here’s another possibility not receiving much attention: Mississippi will play Saturday at Florida. The Rebels (8-2) can’t afford a loss.
Just imagine, Tennessee gaining a playoff spot thanks to rival Florida beating Lane Kiffin, the Vols’ former coach who stomped on their hearts by high-tailing it out of town in favor of USC 17 years ago.
Tennessee fans despise few teams like Florida, but the Big Orange should put those feelings on the shelf – if only briefly – if it means gaining a helping hand into the playoff.
2. I predict the top 13 of Tuesday’s CFP rankings: 1. Oregon, 2. Ohio State, 3. Texas, 4. Penn State, 5. Indiana, 6. Notre Dame, 7. Miami, 8. Alabama, 9. Mississippi, 10. Georgia, 11. BYU, 12. Tennessee, 13. Boise State
3. My latest ‘Topp Rope’ playoff projection: Oregon (Big Ten), Alabama (SEC), Miami (ACC), Colorado (Big 12), Boise State (Group of Five), plus at-large selections Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, Notre Dame. Next up: Tennessee, SMU, BYU, Texas A&M, Army, Tulane.
(This story was updated to change a video.)
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. The ‘Topp Rope’ is his football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
